Not sure if you are aware but it looks like there is a great possibility that the Comex will not be able to deliver all the contracts that stand for delivery in March.
If this occurs it could cause a force majeure situation in the silver market. And if that occurs this is what could happen. Here is the question and the answer that I posed to Google AI.
Question:
At this present time there are many more silver contracts on the COMEX that stand for delivery in March than the supply of silver at the COMEX. Will this cause a force majeure and if that occurs what would the implications be?
Answer:
As of February 11, 2026, the COMEX silver market is facing a severe supply-to-demand imbalance. Currently, open interest for the March 2026 contract stands at approximately 429–528 million ounces, while registered inventory (silver immediately available for delivery) has plummeted to roughly 103–113 million ounces.
If even 25% of current contract holders stand for physical delivery, the COMEX would lack sufficient metal to fulfill its obligations, potentially triggering a Force Majeure or an "Exchange Emergency"
- Force Cash Settlement: Instead of delivering physical bars, the exchange can mandate that contracts be settled in cash at a "fair price" determined by the board.
- Raise Margins: Drastic increases in margin requirements are often used to force "longs" to liquidate their positions before the February 27, 2026, First Notice Day.
- Halt Trading: The exchange may suspend trading to prevent further depletion of registered stocks.
- Physical Decoupling: The "paper" price on the COMEX may become meaningless or frozen, while the "physical" price for actual metal in London or Shanghai could explode to $200+ per ounce as industrial users scramble for supply.
- ETF Disruption: Major silver ETFs like SLV could break their pegs to the spot price, as they may be unable to source the physical bars required for new share creation.
- Industrial Panic: Manufacturers (solar, EV, electronics) who rely on just-in-time delivery may face production line closures if they cannot source physical metal outside the broken exchange system.
- Mining Sector Surge: Shares of silver mining companies typically gap significantly higher (potentially 200-500%) as they become the only reliable source of new physical supply.
- Systemic Risk: Analysts warn that a failure at the COMEX could destroy the credibility of the entire credit-based pricing system for precious metals, potentially spreading to the gold and broader financial markets.
Watch ye therefore, and pray always, that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man. Luke 21:36
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